When The Experiment Is Designed To Fail

Have you taken the new Metrobus route 33 express yet?

I have.

I wasn’t planning to. I was going to a movie and I showed up at The Village too early. Route 33 was right there and, I decided, waiting is waiting.

Have you given any thought to why you haven’t used route 33 yet?

I have.

A Circuitous Journey

The first time I tried to get route 33 I was surprised to learn that it doesn’t run on the weekend. I guess it’s not really worth the investment, what with no one trying to go to any of its stops on a Saturday or Sunday…

The second time I tried the timing didn’t work out. While today’s story does see me choosing to spend more time in the Avalon Mall than I wanted to, it was instead of spending more time at The Village mall… “Less time on the bus” isn’t as desirable when the price is “more time away from home.”

But now, finally, I have taken route 33. I got on, watched the bus pull away with no others in sight, and marveled at how delightfully quick we were pulling into an empty Avalon Mall bus stop. I was early, so I indulged my curiosity. Instead of heading straight inside I waited in one of the bus shelters. And, yep, sure enough route 33 pulled away a minute later with nary another bus in sight.

The problem with curiosity is that it’s seldom sated. You’re far more likely to whet your appetite for more information.

Is this common?

I reached out to the transit nerds I know at Streets Are For People. I figured they’d have what I needed. Technically they did have the data, they had the GTFS data for the entire Metrobus network. But providing me that would be akin to spraying me in the face with a firehose after asking for a glass of water.

In the end I pulled the data from the PDFs on Metrobus’s website. Those of you that know just winced.

What did I find out?

Less than 5% of the busses stopping at the three hubs have a route 33 express bus available for a transfer.

Ooof.

“But Seamus, that’s not fair. A bus doesn’t need to arrive at exactly the same time for a transfer to be convenient.”

Perhaps you’re right. Is up to a 5-minute wait convenient? Because only 21% of the busses fall into that window. How about 10 minutes? Because that only raises the percentage to 37%.

“But Seamus, designing bus routes is hard. They all take different amounts of time to cover different routes. Doing all that and having them line up must be almost impossible.”

And you are right. When the service runs too infrequently it does create a transfer timing problem. So let us look at routes 1, 2, 3, and 10. Those routes form the backbone of the city’s service.

Clearly Metrobus can do this. More busses allow for an immediate transfer to or from routes 1, 2, 3, or 10 than can transfer to or from route 33 within 10 minutes. If we’re as generous with these key routes as we were with route 33, almost 90% of the busses stopping at the hubs fall within the ±10 minute window.

But why does this matter?

People have been asking for an express service for years. One of the first things people will complain about when saying why they don’t use the bus is how long it takes to get somewhere. Metrobus responding to this feedback, actually taking steps to improve their service, is a big deal.

It shouldn’t be a big deal. But it is.

But there’s a catch. Metrobus doesn’t have unlimited resources. The resources they do have come from public funds. At some point they’re going to have to decide whether to continue investing in an express service, or whether to return to their tried and true policy of hoping for different results while doing the same thing over and over.

I’m worried they’re going to look at ridership numbers and say “we gave you what you asked for and no one used it.” And that data will forever more be used as proof that the city doesn’t need an express route.

Do I think that’s the outcome Metrobus wants? Do I think the experiment is truly designed to fail?

I don’t know. Hanlon’s razor says to never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. I’ll let you decide which interpretation is more complimentary.

What I do know is that the transit options in St. John’s are in desperate need of improvement. But to fix a problem you first have to prove there is one. And to prove there is one, you need data so simple even a real-estate agent can understand it.

So here’s my problem statement, as simply put as I can manage: Very few people are using route 33 because its schedule makes it inconvenient for 95% of passengers passing through the stops it services.